2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

[Steelbook Indy]

Good morning all.  In years past, I used to host an Oscar Party.  I did this every year for about 15 years.  When my first wife and I divorced, I tried to keep it going for a couple more years, but I just ran out of gas.  I still love watching The Oscars and movies which are nominated for Academy Awards.  I thought it would be fun to start a thread for others interested in The Oscars in predicting nominations for the major categories.  I'd love to start.  My predictions will be below with movies which I've seen underlined.  I'll also place them in order of likelihood of being nominated from top to bottom   If you'd like to join the fun, I'd love to chat with you about them... Who know which titles we'll be seeing in Steelbook or premium treatment?  Here we go:

 

Best Picture

• The Power of the Dog ***
• Belfast
• CODA
• Licorice Pizza
• West Side Story
• Dune
• King Richard
• Being the Ricardos
• King Richard
• Nightmare Alley

Outside shot - Spider-man: No Way Home

Best Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
• Will Smith - King Richard ***
• Andrew Garfield - tick, tick... BOOM!
• Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

Outside shot - Peter Dinklage - Cyrano

Best Actress

• Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos ***
• Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
• Kristen Stewart - Spencer
• Jennifer Hudson - Respect
• Lady Gaga - House of Gucci

Outside shot - Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actor

• Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog ***
• Troy Kotsur - CODA
• Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
• J.K. Simmons - Being the Ricardos
• Jamie Dornan - Belfast

Outside shot - Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
• Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog ***
• Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
• Marlee Matlin - CODA
• Cate Blanchet - Nightmare Alley

Outside shot - Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter

Best Director

• Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog ***
• Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
• Denis Velleneuve - Dune
• Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
• Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

Outside Shot - Guillermo del Toro - Nightmare Alley

 

There you have it - I thought about posting predictions for Best Animated Film and Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplay, but I thought I'd see what interest this thread stirs before sinking too much time into it.

 

Looking forward to hearing your predictions/thoughts.

[Sidewinder]

This is a great idea @Steelbook Indy!

 

You've made me realise just how few films I've watched this past year, I've only seen Dune out of all of these! 😧 So I'm not in a great position to make any guesses but am looking forward to reading the responses here!

 

I'll have a look and see if any of these are on Netflix/Prime and try and watch some before the ceremony 🙂

[Wtd]

Great idea and really good predictions as well! Here are mine (winners in blue).

 

Best Picture

• Belfast
• The Power of the Dog
• Licorice Pizza
• CODA
• West Side Story
• Dune
• Don't Look Up
• King Richard
• Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

Best Director

• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune

 

Best Actor

• Will Smith, King Richard
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

 

Best Actress

• Kristen Stewart, Spencer
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
• Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
• Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
• Jared Leto, House of Gucci

 

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana Debose, West Side Story
• Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
• Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Edited February 1, 2022 by Wtd
submitted prematurely

[Steelbook Indy]

5 hours ago, Wtd said:

Great idea and really good predictions as well! Here are mine (winners in blue).

 

Best Picture

• Belfast
• The Power of the Dog
• Licorice Pizza
• CODA
• West Side Story
• Dune
• Don't Look Up
• King Richard
• Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

Best Director

• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune

 

Best Actor

• Will Smith, King Richard
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

 

Best Actress

• Kristen Stewart, Spencer
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
• Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
• Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
• Jared Leto, House of Gucci

 

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana Debose, West Side Story
• Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
• Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

No nomination for Kristen Dunst?

[Jakeb1022]

5 hours ago, Wtd said:

Great idea and really good predictions as well! Here are mine (winners in blue).

 

Best Picture

• Belfast
• The Power of the Dog
• Licorice Pizza
• CODA
• West Side Story
• Dune
• Don't Look Up
• King Richard
• Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

Best Director

• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune

 

Best Actor

• Will Smith, King Richard
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick ... Boom!
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

 

Best Actress

• Kristen Stewart, Spencer
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
• Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
• Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
• Jared Leto, House of Gucci

 

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana Debose, West Side Story
• Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
• Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

OLIVIA COLMAN HYPE 

[Wtd]

19 minutes ago, Steelbook Indy said:

No nomination for Kristen Dunst?

I think she's likely to get one, but this one was a personal choice. I was immensely disappointed with her performance in the film. I thought she was incredibly one-dimensional and more or less a prop/set dressing. I was disappointed too, because I think she's capable of giving a great performance, but the script didn't do her many favors in my opinion.

 

Also, I was truly stunned by Alana Haim's magnetism and charisma in Licorice Pizza. Without her, that movie absolutely doesn't work and she does a phenomenal job with a fairly confused and enigmatic character.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Wtd

[Steelbook Indy]

18 minutes ago, Wtd said:

I think she's likely to get one, but this one was a personal choice. I was immensely disappointed with her performance in the film. I thought she was incredibly one-dimensional and more or less a prop/set dressing. I was disappointed too, because I think she's capable of giving a great performance, but the script didn't do her many favors in my opinion.

 

Also, I was truly stunned by Alana Haim's magnetism and charisma in Licorice Pizza. Without her, that movie absolutely doesn't work and she does a phenomenal job with a fairly confused and enigmatic character.

My wife would agree with you on Dunst.  I promoted the movie to her as the front-runner for Best Pic and Best Supporting Actress, and halfway through she said, “Unless Dunst has a big scene coming up, I’m not seeing it.”

 

I, on the other hand, loved her.  I too have enjoyed her past performance - I still argue that she should have an Oscar nod for Interview with a Vampire.  She was tremendous in Fargo Season 2.  For me, I loved that she was; A. mailing it in - which I think her character, Rose, was too, and B. coasting through life, ignoring signs that she just might be living the rest of her life with a sociopath.  I thought it was very well done with what she had to work with from the page.

 

We’ve yet to see Licorice Pizza.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Steelbook Indy

[Steelbook Indy]

39 minutes ago, Jakeb1022 said:

OLIVIA COLMAN HYPE 

I just watched The Lost Daughter last night.  Colman was amazing in it - not as amazing as The Favourite - but amazing. I was a bit let down by the story.  I wrote a review of it in the Movie Review section.

[Wtd]

2 minutes ago, Steelbook Indy said:

I just watched The Lost Daughter last night.  Colman was amazing in it - not as amazing as The Favourite - but amazing. I was a bit let down by the story.  I wrote a review of it in the Movie Review section.

Maybe it's because my wife and I are planning on getting pregnant this month, but that movie messed us up. I thought it was a really strong directorial debut with confident direction and efficient, if not showy, photography. I thought it relied maybe a little too heavily on flashbacks, but overall it did what it needed to do to tell the story and deliver on the film's emotional core.

 

I thought the performances were definitely the standouts, with Colman, Buckley, and Johnson all excelling. I was especially impressed with Jessie Buckley.

[Steelbook Indy]

2 minutes ago, Wtd said:

Maybe it's because my wife and I are planning on getting pregnant this month, but that movie messed us up. I thought it was a really strong directorial debut with confident direction and efficient, if not showy, photography. I thought it relied maybe a little too heavily on flashbacks, but overall it did what it needed to do to tell the story and deliver on the film's emotional core.

 

I thought the performances were definitely the standouts, with Colman, Buckley, and Johnson all excelling. I was especially impressed with Jessie Buckley.

If you get a chance, check out my review on the site, it’d be good to get a conversation going on that thread.

[Wtd]

Nominees will be officially announced tomorrow morning (pacific time) so get those predictions in while you still can!

 

[xdestroyerj]

I know it’s not listed on here but:

 

I really hope The Mitchells vs The Machines takes best animated feature. That film was a gem, start to finish filled with incredible amounts of detail.

 

[Steelbook Indy]

4 hours ago, Wtd said:

Nominees will be officially announced tomorrow morning (pacific time) so get those predictions in while you still can!

 

[Veum]

I wish I could participate however I stopped watching these long ago… got to… well you know for me! 😏

 

[Steelbook Indy]

So, based on my predictions, I did alright.

Best Picture

9/10 - I missed Drive My Car (I predicted Being the Ricardos)

Best Actor

5/5

Best Actress

3/5 - I missed Penelope Cruz and Jessica Chastain (though she was my longshot) - I predicted Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson

Best Director

4/5 - I missed Ryusuke Hamaguchi (I predicted Denis Velleneuve)

Best Supporting Actor

4/5 - I missed Jesse Plemons - though I'm very happy that he was nominated (I predicted Jamie Dornan)

Best Supporting Actress

2/5 - I missed Jessie Buckley (though my longshot), Judi Dench (predicted Caitriona Balfe), and Aunjaneue Ellis (other predictions were Marilee Matlin and Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley)

[Steelbook Indy]

7 minutes ago, Veum said:

I wish I could participate however I stopped watching these long ago… got to… well you know for me! 😏

 

[Steelbook Indy]

13 hours ago, xdestroyerj said:

I know it’s not listed on here but:

 

I really hope The Mitchells vs The Machines takes best animated feature. That film was a gem, start to finish filled with incredible amounts of detail.

 

It's nominated - so onto the uphill battle of defeating Encanto.

[Veum]

27 minutes ago, Steelbook Indy said:

 

Another crown added for ‘Ol Veum! 😛 

 

[Wtd]

35 minutes ago, Steelbook Indy said:

So, based on my predictions, I did alright.

Best Picture

9/10 - I missed Drive My Car (I predicted Being the Ricardos)

Best Actor

5/5

Best Actress

3/5 - I missed Penelope Cruz and Jessica Chastain (though she was my longshot) - I predicted Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson

Best Director

4/5 - I missed Ryusuke Hamaguchi (I predicted Denis Velleneuve)

Best Supporting Actor

4/5 - I missed Jesse Plemons - though I'm very happy that he was nominated (I predicted Jamie Dornan)

Best Supporting Actress

2/5 - I missed Jessie Buckley (though my longshot), Judi Dench (predicted Caitriona Balfe), and Aunjaneue Ellis (other predictions were Marilee Matlin and Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley)

Not bad at all. I’m pleasantly surprised the academy recognized Hamaguchi, only reason I didn’t have him in my picks was because I didn’t think the academy would do it. Very deserving film and filmmaker.

 

Onto the results (all predicted winners were nominated):

 

Best Picture

8/10 - Drive my Car and Nightmare Alley instead of Macbeth and Boom. Somewhat surprised Macbeth wasn’t recognized but GDT getting recognized by the academy shouldn’t really shock anyone I guess.

 

Best Director
4/5 - Hamaguchi instead of Villeneuve. A bit surprising but makes sense in a post-Parasite world.

 

Best Actor
5/5 - nailed it.

 

Best Actress
3/5 - Cruz and Chastain instead of Haim and Gaga. Disappointed in this set of nominees. Mostly because the Tammy Faye movie was bad and Haim truly deserved a nomination for her work. I haven’t seen Parallel Mothers yet but I don’t doubt Cruz is deserving, her work with Almodóvar is usually exceptional.

 

Best Supporting Actor
3/5 - Simmons and Plemons instead of Cooper and Leto. Makes sense though I think Being the Ricardos is incredibly overrated.

 

Best Supporting Actress
3/5 - Dench and Dunst instead of Balfe and Blanchett. Makes sense to me though I think Dunst’s performance in Power of the Dog is pretty weak overall.

 

All in all, I did okay with predictions and I’m still 100% live on winner guesses so that’s something. This year more than most I went against what I thought would happen and picked what I wanted to happen (especially in the acting categories) and it burned me a bit.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Wtd

[Steelbook Indy]

12 minutes ago, Wtd said:

I think Being the Ricardos is incredibly overrated.

I understand your feelings regarding the film.  I, personally, liked it.  However, I get it if you found it weak.  That said, I felt that Simmons was the best performance in the film with Kidman behind him.  I don't believe Bardem should have been nominated for this role.

 

I am exceptionally excited for Plemons, and with his nomination (among others), I think that Power of the Dog has all but won Best Picture and Best Director.  If Cumberbatch had more of a role in it, I say he's the front runner for Best Actor, but I think Smith is going to be tough to beat.  I still believe Dunst to be the front runner for Best Supporting Actress - but the Golden Globes really threw a monkey wrench in the machinery.  Though I picked Kidman to win for Being the Ricardos - I secretly think Kristen Stewart is going to win Best Actress.

[Casiusco]

I haven't seen many of the nominees yet, but I hope to see all of them at some point. If I can.

 

Even so, some details have caught my attention:

• There is no nomination for Lady Gaga's formidable work in "House of Gucci". The nomination of "Penelope Cruz", even having done a good job, is not consistent, her interpretation is far from what Gaga achieved. Really far. Maybe this is influenced by the fact that nominations undervalued almost anything that had to do with that (good) Ridley Scott movie.
• "Licorice Pizza" has nominations for best film and best director. And almost nothing else, just the script. Does that have consistency? Can you have one of the best movies, best directed, but with nothing more good to add? Some will say that maybe that happens because it is a balanced film, where nothing stands out but everything is very good. And maybe it's true. Still, it caught my attention.
• This year the competition to be the best international film is very interesting. The favorite is "Drive my car", and it will probably win; but other movies in that category are also quite interesting. "The hand of god" is one I hope to see at some point. 
• The category of animated films is in decline. They have been nominating large productions for two years as if they were buying hake: because of the size and color. As if they couldn't fill the roster and started reading to see what was released this year. They are not bad movies, of course, but there is nothing special about them. And there is animation beyond certain majors. 

[Steelbook Indy]

2 hours ago, Casiusco said:

"Licorice Pizza" has nominations for best film and best director. And almost nothing else, just the script. Does that have consistency? Can you have one of the best movies, best directed, but with nothing more good to add? Some will say that maybe that happens because it is a balanced film, where nothing stands out but everything is very good. And maybe it's true. Still, it caught my attention.

Hey Casiusco - welcome to the party.

 

It is odd that Licorice Pizza didn't receive any other nominations; however, everything that I am reading about it (I've yet to see it) says that it's one of the best 3-5 movies of the year.  I think in another year, we would have seen Alana Haim nominated for Best Actress.  I really think that Stewart hung on (barely), and Colman gained momentum in the last 3-4 weeks.  Haim just didn't have enough time to gain steam.  I also read that Hoffman was strong enough for a nomination, but the Best Actor category is so packed this year (as is Best Actress).  Some of the people left out of those two categories are: Leonardo DiCaprio, Peter Dinklage, Bradley Cooper, Nicolas Cage, Lady Gaga, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Zegler and Tessa Thompson which were all positioned in the top 5 odds at being nominated at some point.

 

I think that if we could look at who garnered the 6th and 7th most votes for many categories, we'd see why a movie like Licorice Pizza made the cut for director and picture while missing on acting categories (perhaps barely) among others.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Steelbook Indy
corrected statement

[Wtd]

2 hours ago, Steelbook Indy said:

I understand your feelings regarding the film.  I, personally, liked it.  However, I get it if you found it weak.  That said, I felt that Simmons was the best performance in the film with Kidman behind him.  I don't believe Bardem should have been nominated for this role.

Mostly I think I'm just tired of Sorkin doing the same thing over and over again. I don't want to spoil it, but there's one choice in this film that was genuinely shocking and tone deaf.

 

Also, I just find him to be a good (great) writer who needs to have his impulses tempered by a different director because otherwise he overindulges and kind of spins off into his own self-indulgent microverse.

[Steelbook Indy]

Just now, Wtd said:

Mostly I think I'm just tired of Sorkin doing the same thing over and over again. I don't want to spoil it, but there's one choice in this film that was genuinely shocking and tone deaf.

 

Also, I just find him to be a good (great) writer who needs to have his impulses tempered by a different director because otherwise he overindulges and kind of spins off into his own self-indulgent microverse.

I've seen the movie, so share with me via PM if you don't want to spoil it publicly what you found toned deaf.  I'd be interested in your perspective.  Sorkin is my second favorite screen writer (based on the strength of The West Wing), so I rarely get tired of his walk-and-talk style and clever dialogue.  No doubt that Tommy Schlamme kept Sorkin in check, but I've also found that entertainment is genuinely a better place when Sorkin is involved regardless of whether he directs (which isn't his strength in comparison to his writing).

[Scary Hair]

OK so Dune has got a fair few nods GREAT JOB 

 

WTF NO nomination for Denis Villeneuve 

 

Who ever didn't put a X or whatever on whatever for Dune needs to go to SpeckSavers 

Thats my interest ended as to who wins what , OK Olivia Colman and Andrew Garfield I may send them some  .