4kiraL

vor 31 Minuten schrieb cypheria078:

Congratulations to the winners 🥳

 

 

German people seems to be better on predictions than playing on the pitch 😅

 

 

 

vor 31 Minuten schrieb serg50:

Thank you for the clarification, I've been thinking for a long time why you always have 1-0, congratulations on the victory

Yeah, it was just experimental. I chose 1:0 because it is one of the most common results. Lots of times my heart tells me to predict 2:1 oder 2:0 but I had to fight against that urge. rtphoenix predicted the perfect results much better than my strategy, so there's that...

Edit:

To be more precise, if anyone is interested in math, I checked the Euros results of the last few years.

19.6% a game ends in "1:0"

23.7% a game ends with a 1 point difference without "1:0"

31.2% a game does not in a draw or in a 1 point difference

which means for the expected value E and a prediction success of 66% we have:

E = 0.66/(0.66+0.17)*(0.196 * 4 Pts + 0.237 * 3 Pts + 0.312 * 2 Pts) = 1.685 Pts

In other words betting only 1:0 across the whole tournament will give me about 1.685 Pts per game. With 51 games played, I can expect to get around 15 * 1.685 Pts = 86  Pts without Bonus Pts.

Thank you all. I am glad, my method worked and am very happy about the prize.

But I also want to apologize for using a somewhat unconventional strategy.

I am a mathematician and it was a math experiment on my side. I wanted to check if the World Rankings are as irrelevant as people say. My conclusion is that using world rankings as a means to predict the outcome of football games is very reliable. My top Stats according to Kicktipp was that I missed only 33% of my winner picks. In other words: Since 15% of the games ended in a draw, I only chose the losing team 18% of the time. I believe this was the deciding factor.

But I also realize there are limitations to this strategy. For example I sticked to Belgium in the game Italy vs Belgium because Belgium has the higher ranking. But this means I am disregarding the fact that Belgium have two important players with injuries. As we all know Italy won in the end.

But on the bright side: I predicted Denmark to get into the semi finals, which barely anyone expected. All in all, numbers are a very useful tool when it comes to predicting the future but can also be deceiving at times.

My strategy was very boring, so I want to spice it up next time we play in 2024

vor 2 Minuten schrieb romain:

Congratulations to the winners of the contest

and to all the members who participated

 

Finally a thought for the English psychos, 

The entries of Rashford and Sancho for the serie of penalties in the end did not pay off

losing a final on penalties is always difficult

football don't coming home, probably for another time

Yes it's very tough.

I was rooting for England. Seeing the English team and fans cry was very heartbreaking.

vor 26 Minuten schrieb rtphoenix:

Congratulations to Italy for European Championship

 

Congratulations for @4kiraL, @serg50and @Hatorifor winning the Game

Thanks! It's sad you didn't get into top 3. Your predictions were spot on. You are the player with best result accuracy (20%).

vor 9 Minuten schrieb R1s1ngs0n:

When all is said is done, Italy deserves to be crowned champions but boy, was it a hard fought victory.

Once again, the curse of penalty shoot outs continues for England and I can’t help but feel sympathy for Southgate and his players, especially those who were unfortunate to miss.

But most importantly… I finish well ahead of @thomue1987 so that is really all that matters 😃

You predicted Italy to win it. Respect!

vor 8 Minuten schrieb Toapel:

Glückwunsch an Italien. Über das Turnier gesehen definitiv verdient. Und die Engländer haben ja nun wieder 50+ Jahre Zeit zu üben für das nächste Finale.

 

@4kiraL Top, echt gut getippt. Respekt und Glückwunsch

 

Schönen Abend zusammen

Wolfgang

 

Dankeschön!

Ja, Italien ist sehr verdient Sieger.

Die Engländer tun mir etwas Leid, aber es kann leider nur eine Mannschaft gewinnen. 

I like it. It has an old movie vibe to it.

vor 1 Minute schrieb serg50:

but that's if you don't guess the champion tomorrow

That's true. It will be fun night

vor 1 Minute schrieb 4kiraL:

He has 1 Spieltagssieg and I have 0, so equal points means he wins

It's also very funny situation because I have to hope he doesn't choose a different team and if he does, I have to hope that Kane and Sterling don't shoot any goals

vor 32 Minuten schrieb serg50:

he will only be able to catch up with you on points, and then only if you do not earn a single point tomorrow. I've already counted everything 

He has 1 Spieltagssieg and I have 0, so equal points means he wins

@rtphoenix if you have a good run tomorrow maybe you will kick me off 1st place.

I think England and Italy are equally strong. But this time England has a big advantage playing in Wembley.

vor 17 Minuten schrieb LeGonze:

That was disgusting… VAR IS A JOKE!!!

 

The rule is if there is slightest bit of contact, VAR cannot overrule the ref. So, it's not the VAR's fault. But that rule is still a joke, though. VAR should have the power to make the referee at least look at the footage.

If England wins Euros, i will have milk with my tea for the rest of my life.

vor 3 Minuten schrieb pluto57:

I guess they knew that you have to throw patriotsm overboard when it comes to collect points for predictions. And there is still a small chance that those 4 may go away empty-handed with a danish surprise....

I believe in Denmark from start to finish. But England haven't won a title for so long. I think both would be worthy finalists.

vor 11 Minuten schrieb R1s1ngs0n:

So now only 4 participants left with a chance to scoop the bonus points for winner of this Euro:

A Frenchman, a German and an Englishman who bet on Italy to win and another German who bet on England to win... patriotism at its finest 😁

And multiple Germans betting on England having the player with most goals

If Kane or Sterling win Golden Boot, I will probably not finish top 3 any more haha

vor 1 Minute schrieb Noir21:

Already from the penalty shootout, Italy started with an advantage when Chiellini (who knows all) that the draw was repeated and managed to choose the goal of the Italian fans.

 

And it seems incredible that the goalkeeper coach of Spain does not know Jorginho's talent and shooting technique on penalties, when that style of shooting should bear his name.

Correct, according to this study, Italy has an average of 20% (60% vs 40%) advantage over spain: https://www.mpg.de/17126111/coin-toss-influences-penalty-shootout

vor 3 Minuten schrieb R1s1ngs0n:

Italy wanted to go to penalties and I predicted they would win the shootout. Very harsh on Spain and poor Morata (wouldn't want to be in his shoes right now). 

Based on this match alone Spain richly deserved to go to the final but Italy has once again shown they have what it takes to reach the highest stage, even when underperforming.

 

And that last penalty was pure class 😍

 

With penalties there is always some luck involved. Somtimes the keeper just chooses the same corner you choose. A penalty always has 20% to 30% miss chance, it's not real football, that's why I hate penalties. Olmo and Morata missed but they were the reason they were still in this. On another day if spain didn't lose the coin toss, spain would have won. There is a study that proves the following correlation: whoever wins the coin toss has a significant higher chance of winning the shootout.

Well played by both teams. What a bummer it had to end in a penalty shootout.

Morata best Redemption Arc in TV and Cinema history.

Interesting Thread. Quite a lot of films that sound interesting. Thank you

I can recommend the following (ranked from top to bottom):

1. Searching for Sugarman

2. Parasite

3. Midsommar

4. Hereditary

5. The Lobster

6. Confessions

7. Buried

8. Shutter Island

9. Snowpiercer

10. The Lighthouse

11. Waves

12. Moonlight

13. Burning

14. Cabin in the Woods

15. True Grit

16. Carnage

17. The Report

18. Le Prénom

19. Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy

20. I saw the Devil

21. Age of Cannibals

22. Wild Tales

23. Room

24. Klaus

25. Wonder Woman

26. Intouchables

27. Gone Girl

28. Marriage Story

29. Jojo Rabbit

30. Warrior

vor 5 Minuten schrieb Gladiator_MV:

 

 

 

Schiri war parteiisch, ganz klar!

Ukraine please avenge us!